Trading Update - 7

Update 6
January Trade Review

This post is dedicated to February trades. The algo has not been modified except for some small bug fixes. Both algos that I described previously are being traded.



02/01/2019
$SPY has been really strong the last few days due to the fed not increasing rates. Not a whole lot stands out to me during premarket except $TTNP but it’s too low for the algo to trade at the moment.

I’m pretty tired so I’ll let it trade until 11:30-12:00.

Not a lot going on besides the $TMSR halt craziness. Hopefully that sets the tone for next week. Stopping at 11:00. No trades.

02/04/2019
$SPY is sideways during premarket with no gap. Could go either way. The State of the Union is tomrrow. I hope it doesn’t tank the market like it did last year. I may skip tomorrow and Wednesday depending on how volatile things are. My sleep schedule is pretty weird so I’ll go until 12. I’ve got some sinus pressure like I described in my January post from being sick. I feel way better than the first week of being sick so it’s progress.

Pretty slow but there were some trades. Unfortunately none really worked. $MNGA had a nice runup on some news but couldn’t break out of the flag. $AXSM had a really nice flat top flag but ultimately failed. I’m going to stop at 11 since there’s not much happening. $SPY was chopping around a bunch so I think I’ll just wait until Wednesday or Thursday depending on how the market reacts.

Down about $11 today. Not a lot but it keeps getting more difficult to make up the losses. I’d like to try swing trading $AMD more based off the daily chart but it has to pull back first.

$MBOT and $PYX also had failed flags.



$MNGA 5m/1m candles

$AXSM 5m/1m candles

02/05/2019
$SPY gapped up a bit so I’ll let it trade today. Not sure about tomorrow though. I don’t see much happening so there might not be a trade.

It’s watching 5 stocks by 10:00 and I’m not seeing anything moving. I’ll stop at 11.

Got a trade on $EOLS. It looked like a good setup but it refused to breakout. I was never up on it more than 5c. Algo sold sooner than the stop because of multiple topping candles.

Stopping at 11 due to nothing going on. I’ll let it paper trade.

It paper traded $EOLS around 12:30. Easy win. If I kept live trading it would have made back the loss and been up $4.



$EOLS 5m/1m candles

02/06/2019
Assuming the entire market doesn’t collapse, I plan to trade the entire day. By only trading a few hours per day I am limiting my potential winners. This was proven yesterday after it traded $EOLS again after I had stopped trading live. It made back the gain and more to the point of profitability. I increased the “trade rate” filter from 25 to 50 to make sure the stocks it’s watching are very active.

Only watching 11 stocks by 10:30 and I don’t see much happening.

Today is extremely dead and I want to work on another project so I’ll let it paper trade while I sleep.

No trades. A few were popping up but they failed.

02/07/2019
Big gap down in the $SPY. I don’t see much moving besides weed stocks.

This week has been really crappy. Either Friday starts getting good again or maybe next week.

Only watching 11 stocks by 12 so I’m going to stop it and work on other things.

Not even a paper trade today. I did see a nice $EOLS flag today but it did not meet the requirements. All the volume came in on that single bar. It didn’t matter in this case.

02/08/2019
$SPY is down again so we’ll see what happens.

Nothing going on by 10:20 so I’m just going to paper trade so I can do some other things. I’d really like there to be some crazy runners like $VTVT last year with perfect flags.

02/11/2019
Not much going on again.

Small caps are extremely dead so I’m going to experiment with paper trading by allowing it to trade higher market caps (up to 10B vs 1B).

  1. $EOLS hit the scan and the flag looked great. I manually took it and the algo did a few seconds later. Worked OK but got stopped out for a profit when it moved the stop to $28.97 (whole number stop).
  2. $UNVR drifted down and got stopped out. Stocks like this are why I hate large caps. Nice setup and it just slowly doesn’t work.
  3. $AXGN later in the day. I believe that particular setup requires a small change to make sure candles aren’t completely outside the body of the high.

There is significantly more junk after upping the market cap. This means I also need to increase my other filters like volume and trade count/rate.

02/12/2019
I’m going back to paper trading for the week since I have tweaked the scans and changed the algo slightly to make it hopefully trade better setups.

  1. $CRON. Took a while but hit the target.
  2. $ROKU. Really slow but hit the target after 25 minutes.
  3. $BHF. No fill. This one it definitely missed. Entry was 40.14 and the bid/ask was already 40.15 x 40.20. Plenty of time to get out for a small win as it formed a \/\/ top.
  4. $MAT. Too much resistance near $17. It was nearly identical to the $BHF setup.
  5. $CRON again.
  6. $APHA. Another weed stock at the same time as $CRON. Not as good of a setup since the “high” candle is not above the previous candles.
  7. $BWA. No fill.

So, the early trades were OK but it gave back everything by making multiple trades that didn’t fit the pattern. I’ve fixed those issues and in fact it should have taken $EOLS on 2/7. I hate tweaking the algo constantly because it’s a never ending process but it seems necessary in order to not trade garbage setups.

02/13/2019

  1. $CVE. This exact pattern showed up yesterday on multiple stocks. It seems like this setup is a perfect short opportunity. Float is 1B which is nuts. Sold break even after it topped a bunch. I’m adding a float filter using IEX to avoid 350M+ floats. It ended up hitting the target about an hour later.
  2. $AVLR. Got filled at the top of the candle due to terrible spreads (probably would have gotten somewhere in the middle if it wasn’t a paper trade). Decent win on it.
  3. $LSCC. I was in the shower when it took this one. Only a 10c move but that’s still a win. It topped at 10.50 so it got out. That was the right call because it’s drifting back to the entry.
  4. $CRC. Algo sold for a small loss due to it topping at $19.00. Eventually it got going and ran way past the target.

Pretty decent today. On another note, IB added a few lines to the TWS VM options file and it may have fixed the annoying lag problems I had.

02/14/2019

  1. $TGE. No fill. I may lower the “no fill” delay so if it doesn’t get filled immediately there’s no trade.
  2. $IVC. Failed completely. Eventually hit the target but took many hours. It’s a really nice pullback setup but it shouldn’t have been traded because the high candle was not extended.
  3. $MYOK. Break even. Probably moved the stop too soon. Hit the target eventually.
  4. $GSUM. No fill but if it were live I’m pretty sure it would have since there were lots of orders at the entry. Hit the target of 3.82 and then some.
  5. $GSUM. No fill again. It missed the target by 1c which is just crazy.

One it did not trade was $MRO which had a real nice flag after the daily breakout. It wasn’t on the scan because of the 13B market cap and the float being huge. Still a nice trade. I looked at the 1m chart and it was never down after the entry.

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[02/14/2019 10:10:00] Entry 41 @ $16.74, target $17.02, stop $16.62 [ Bull Flag ]
Trailing stop: 16.62, 16.77
[02/14/2019 10:30:00] Exit @ $17.03 [ $0.29 ]
Drawdown: $0.13 / -0.77%
Max profit: $0.29 / 1.73%
P/L: $11.89

02/15/2019
Friday! If the changes do OK all next week I may go live with it the week after.

  1. $SAEX. Failed almost instantly. Nice setup though.
  2. $YETI. Went up a little, double topped, dumped. Algo sold it sooner so the loss was less.
  3. $PYX. Nice looking setup but failed. It crashed hard then eventually came back to the entry.
  4. $SAEX again. Instantly stopped out. Dumped really hard, and that’s why you have stops.

Pretty slow day. Not sure if all Friday’s have been like this or it’s just slow.

I want to add a risk/reward value so I can make sure the reward is there otherwise there’s no point in going for 1:1 or even less. Also I was thinking about looking at average green candle vs. average red candle sizes to see if that would improve accuracy.

Market is closed on Monday.

02/19/2019
One trade on $RIOT. I think I need a 200 EMA check because it ran straight into it and dumped. Nothing else.

02/20/2019
I increased the market cap to 15B to see what it’d do. I slept while it paper traded and they were all pretty good.

  1. $I. OK trade, got out when it double topped.
  2. $NVTA. Choppy flag, small loss.
  3. $CRON. Awesome setup, basically top ticked it.
  4. $X. Steel company. Tiny winner. Perfect exit since it dumped right after.
  5. $HUYA. Nice setup and it was underestimated severely.

Some really nice trades today with only a single loser.

02/21/2019
No trades. A few were popping up but by the time it made a new high it didn’t meet the requirements or the risk/reward wasn’t good enough.

I’ll probably give it another week to see what it does then go live. I don’t want to have only a weeks worth of trades to go off of.

02/22/2019

  1. $INFN. Stopped out break even.
  2. $AAOI. Late day flag. Dumped first then ran so stopped out for a loss. Kind of annoying how a stock has to crash out of a flag before it finally goes.

02/25/2019

  1. $LB. First pullback which looks great then a giant dump.
  2. $AAOI. Lost on this one on Friday but it won this time. Barely.
  3. $CIFS. Another decent looking setup that failed before getting to the target.

I’m starting to lose hope and maybe I should just reverse the strategy to short it first with a stop at high of day. Every gain is small and every loss is large. If it wins every trade like on the 20th it’s still smaller than two average losses.

02/26/2019

  1. $FTCH. Finally one that worked. It didn’t go instantly but did hit the target. Didn’t get a fill but it should have with a live account.
  2. $SOLO. Instantly dumped. Looking back at it there’s a nice morning flag that did work but was not traded. Hm.

The winners did outweigh the losers today.

02/27/2019

  1. $MDR. Garbage.
  2. $ENPH. Another turd. I’ve seen this one run far in the past.
  3. $OSTK. Extremely slow but hit the target. First flag wasn’t taken due to high RSI.

I’m still finding issues where the candles aren’t up high enough to buy. The second bad flag it traded on $OSTK was garbage even though it worked eventually. I added the RSI > 79 check to filter out really extended junk but that caused it to miss the first flag. I think that indicator is useless for algo trading.

02/28/2019
I’ll write another recap post for this month soon.

  1. $CRON. Stopped out break even. Not a bad trade.
  2. $HZNP. Finally got a move but it couldn’t hit the target. Break even. Many chances to sell for a profit on this.

Quite a few in the morning that did not have the right risk/reward. $ZSAN would have worked but missed the target by 3c.

Trade Review - February 2019



Disclaimer

I am not a registered financial adviser/broker/anything. Use this information for entertainment/informational purposes only. Any tickers mentioned are not recommendations to buy/sell/or sell short. They are used as examples only.

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.