My Trading Problem

Ever since my large loss on $CALI, I’ve been more hesitent when I trade. I don’t know if it’s entirely caused by that one trade alone or because of the cumulative, yet small, losses that I’ve had in my IB account. The problem I’m faced with is entirely psychological. When I paper trade with the exact same setup in TWS, I do not hesitate to make trades and as long as I stick to patterns I recognize, I end up with decent gains even with 100 shares.

The problem seems to come down to risk management. I always try to determine my risk before entering a trade; which is obviously best practices. This ends up being a trap though since I generally determine there is too much risk (such as 20c to the downside, which is usually the low of a previous candle). I then do not take the trade and end up watching the setup play out perfectly. I always talk myself out of the trade by finding an excuse as to why it will not work: big spreads (5-10c), declining volume, huge 5m candle wick, time of day not ideal, etc.

I started watching “How to Think Like a Professional Trader” on YouTube. This part really stuck out to me:

If you didn’t watch the next 10 minutes of it, my main takeaway is this: you have to size down to the point where being wrong or losing money no longer matters. I thought 100 shares was small enough for me where I could focus on patterns and not care but it is not. On Monday I am sizing down to 10, and if that’s not enough I’ll go to 1.

After a few weeks of this I should be able to size up to 20 then 50 then 75 and hopefully back to 100 and just keep progressing slowly. I’m so glad I’m not under the PDT and the fees at IB are small. Every trade will still be a loss due to commissions but that doesn’t matter. Percent gain is what I’ll be going after when I post my trades, and I’ll be removing the dollar gain/loss from the chart. That way I can focus on just the chart and try to have good entries/exits.


Wednesday

I saw some “OK” opportunities on Monday and Tuesday but I either passed them up or missed them. Today I saw $GRPN had earnings and it had a nice morning panic. I waited for it to go green on the day (get over the open price) then I bought in with small size. My risk was down to the 5m 9 EMA or VWAP. I did not expect a huge move out of it and I got out when it couldn’t get over the premarket bounce at $5.50.

That ended up being perfect since there was a conference call at 10:00 that I was unaware of and then it proeceded to tank. I managed to stay in and not get faked out by the drop and captured almost all of the move.

$GRPN


That’s pretty much it for the week. I ended up paper trading on Friday for half the day and managed to make some money on $HEAR twice, and made a little on another stock that went red to green. Both worked out rather well. This weekend I’m going to work on my algorithm again with some new ideas.



Disclaimer

I am not a registered financial adviser/broker/anything. Use this information for entertainment/informational purposes only. Any tickers mentioned are not recommendations to buy/sell/or sell short. They are used as examples only.

Watchlist - 04/27/2018

Selecting Stocks and Analysis

After the TI trial I unintentially took a week off. I need to fix my sleep schedule which appears to be very difficult. I’m just not tired at night and usually tired during market hours even if I get enough sleep.

I’m not totally convinced TI is worth it since every stock that showed up in any of the scans was not really doing anything. I do find it useful for finding % gainers at the end of the day. That is completely free if you sign in using a demo account.

Anyway, I managed to take 60c/share out of $AMD thanks to the earnings spike after hours. I wanted to sell before the close but I was red so I decided to just hold until green. I got lucky. I tried selling it into the fast $10.30 spike but I couldn’t because of open orders not being canceled at Ally Invest. I had to call up the broker to cancel the orders then have them place the sell for me. It was really scary since I know $AMD tends to spike then drop hard. It didn’t this time and kept going so I sold too soon.

I intend to rebuy again if it crashes into the $9s due to market conditions or perhaps an earnings run up like this time. Except next time I’ll take the 30-50c/share immediately if I get it.



$GNPX

Recent IPO. Shouldn’t have many bag holders. Could have support near $10.00.

Shares outstanding: 16.07M

$IPI

Multiday breakout over $4.88.

Float: 80.64M
Short: 9.68%

$EYPT

Earnings.

Float: 43.17M

$VTVT

Still holding up. Support at $1.70.

Float: 6.82M
Short: 25.11%

$AMD

Not planning on actively watching it. If it has a morning panic or finds support at $10.75 again I’ll consider taking a position.

Float: 963.98M
Short: 18.87%

Watchlist Review

Didn’t really see anything amazing.

$HEAR had a perfect 5m dip buy setup but I was not watching it.

$IMGN had news and had a decent 1m setup then a high of day breakout near $11.80.

$I double topped nicely but that one is so choppy.

$AMD dropped to $11 then had a grindy bounce.



Disclaimer

I am not a registered financial adviser/broker/anything. Use this information for entertainment/informational purposes only. Any tickers mentioned are not recommendations to buy/sell/or sell short. They are used as examples only.

Watchlist - 04/23/2018

Selecting Stocks and Analysis

Crypto is hot again so certain crypto related stocks will be heating up.


$I

Refuses to breakdown. It is starting to get close to a $9.70 breakout but I don’t trust it. If it can find some support without being choppy I’ll consider it.

Float: 116M
Short: 9.30%

$SIEN

FDA approval news. This will be the 3rd up day if it manages to go green. The 1m chart has been very choppy.

Float: 18.83M
Short: 11.25%

$XNET

Bitcoin sector. Coincidentally also has fresh Bitcoin news.

Float: 63.82M
Short: 18.43%

$CANN

It tried uptrending again the past few days but now it looks like the run is over since it made a lower high on the daily.



Disclaimer

I am not a registered financial adviser/broker/anything. Use this information for entertainment/informational purposes only. Any tickers mentioned are not recommendations to buy/sell/or sell short. They are used as examples only.

Watchlist - 04/18/2018

Selecting Stocks and Analysis


$VTVT

Terrible long term chart but now it’s above $1.01 so it may be filling the gap.

Float: 9.55M
Short: 2.58%

$I

Float: 116M
Short: 9.30%

$ARQL

Getting close to a breakout over $3.35. Support at $2.50.

Float: 70.1M
Short: 1.69%

$DCAR

Earnings. Extreme low float with high short % according to finviz.

Float: 0.44M
Short: 64.46%

$CANN

Finally got a panic yesterday but the bounce was weak.

$FUSZ

Still on watch for a morning panic.

Watchlist Review

I didn’t really see anything that great except for $VTVT which went straight up. $I had a VWAP pullback but I missed it.



Disclaimer

I am not a registered financial adviser/broker/anything. Use this information for entertainment/informational purposes only. Any tickers mentioned are not recommendations to buy/sell/or sell short. They are used as examples only.

Watchlist - 04/17/2018

Selecting Stocks and Analysis


$HMNY

Has the potential for a short squeeze.

Float: 10.6M
Short: 54.28%

$I

New 52w high but starting to get really overextended on the daily.

Float: 116M
Short: 9.30%

$CRON

Always ends up being really choppy in the morning. Held VWAP pretty well several times though.

Float: 115.32M
Short: 3.66%

$CANN

Weed stocks are back on Canada legalization. This stock has had big morning panics in the past so I’ll be looking for that.

$FUSZ

This is somehow still hanging on. Watching for big morning panics but this one tends to not panic big - at least recently.

Watchlist Review

I was not here for the open since I was too tired.

$HMNY had a perfect opening range breakout. I was thinking last night it might be a good overnight long but it’s such a terrible stock. It gapped up slightly then opened lower and had the ORB.

$I had multiple spikes so it could have been played both ways.

$CRON and $CANN had panics in the morning. $CANN really failed to bounce much and just went sideways.

$FUSZ had a small panic where the bottom dropped out to $2 then it recovered quickly. It just doesn’t want to crack.

Luckily my $AMD buy on Friday was pretty solid. It seems $AMD is now in an uptrend. I plan on selling the day of earnings some time before the close.



Disclaimer

I am not a registered financial adviser/broker/anything. Use this information for entertainment/informational purposes only. Any tickers mentioned are not recommendations to buy/sell/or sell short. They are used as examples only.

Trade Ideas - VWAP Scan

The basic idea behind this strategy:

  1. Buy after it breaks above VWAP and holds it, risk a few percent below VWAP.
  2. Buy after it has been rejecting VWAP for several candles and finally gets above, risk a few percent below VWAP.
  3. Short after it drops below VWAP and rejects it, risk a few percent above VWAP.

It’s not always obvious as to what you should do since each trade is unique.

If the stock is up a lot on the day, look for it to come down and test VWAP. If it breaks down through, wait for it to pop up and test VWAP. If it holds: long, if it rejects: short. Note that it can break a few cents above VWAP and then come down.

The opposite works if the stock is down a lot on the day. Wait for it to bounce into VWAP. If it breaks through and holds: long, if it comes back down and rejects: short the pop.

Not all stocks will follow VWAP so it mostly comes down to experience and how the chart looks. Avoid choppy/illiquid stocks and ones that have large 5m wicks. It seems to work best before 1:00 PM EST.

Here is the cloud link to the current scan that appears to find what I’m looking for. I made this with the demo account and modified it during the 5-day trial period. I’m sure I will tweak it in the future.

Unforunately VWAP does not appear on the charts accurately (with 4.2.28). It’s a known issue and they are working on it. Scanning is perfectly fine though.



Disclaimer

I am not a registered financial adviser/broker/anything. Use this information for entertainment/informational purposes only. Any tickers mentioned are not recommendations to buy/sell/or sell short. They are used as examples only.

Trade Ideas - macOS

Trade Ideas is a stock scanner, screener, charting, etc. application that is Windows only (.NET). Fortunately the 32-bit version of it runs fine under macOS with Wine. I assume it also runs fine under Linux since it works with Wine.

Wine

  1. Download and install Wine.
  2. Download the 32-bit beta release.
  3. Install Wine by copying it to the Applications folder.
  4. Launch “Wine” and it should bring up a terminal.
  5. Install winetricks using brew.
  6. winetricks dotnet45 corefonts
  7. Navigate to your Downloads folder.
  8. Install Trade Ideas using: wine <exe name here>

Crossover

Crossover is a bit easier since it has an installer option for Trade Ideas Pro. It will automatically download the required packages without you needing to do anything. It’s very nice and worth paying for if you can afford it. Paying for it directly supports the Wine project because any bug fixes/improvements are added back to Wine.

  1. Download and install Crossover.
  2. Download the 32-bit beta release.
  3. Once you have installed Crossover, open it and select “Install a Windows Application”.
  4. Type in “Trade Ideas”.
  5. Go to the “Select Installer” tab and choose the latest TI Pro beta 32-bit EXE that you downloaded earlier.
  6. Follow the instructions and you should be good to go.

Watchlist - 04/12/2018

Selecting Stocks and Analysis

Trade Ideas trial starts on Monday. I signed into the demo so I can create a few scanners. The data is delayed by 20 minutes but you can still use it for end of day scanning which is pretty useful.

Some of the cannabis OTC stocks appear to be uptrending but they don’t look that interesting yet.


$CRON

Still managed to have a decent spike yesterday. I’ll see if it can pullback and consolidate like it did before.

Float: 113.07M
Short: 2.94%

$CYRN

Contract news. Weird chart since it’s a 5c tick and barely moves.

Float: 44.29M
Short: 0.27%

$GOPH

It looks like the uptrend is over. There have been two days now where it’s been going down. Still watching for a panic but there might not be one.

$FUSZ

Still not panicking which is quite surprising.

Watchlist Review

Nothing that exciting. I was waiting for $CBI to break over $16.00 but it failed. I realized I should have shorted when it couldn’t break but it felt too low already.

$NETE over the first 5m high was a perfect setup and something you can scan for with TI.



Disclaimer

I am not a registered financial adviser/broker/anything. Use this information for entertainment/informational purposes only. Any tickers mentioned are not recommendations to buy/sell/or sell short. They are used as examples only.

Watchlist - 04/11/2018

Selecting Stocks and Analysis

$SPY gap down on probably R■ssia / S■ria news. I’m only seeing $CBAY up over 10%. Could be a decent day to buy $TVIX.


$CNET

Huge run yesterday and even spiked into the close.

Float: 11.39M
Short: 7.72%

$CRON

Can’t believe I missed this one yesterday. Could have support around $6.00.

Float: 113.07M
Short: 2.94%

$VHC

This one has spiked big in the past but overall it has a terrible long term chart. It seems like any big gap ups result in a red day and it comes right back down. Resistance at $6.20.

Float: 51.52M
Short: 23.64%

$GOPH

Hasn’t been doing too much lately. Still on watch for a morning panic.

$FUSZ

Watching for a big morning panic.

Watchlist Review

$CBAY had a really nice uptrend then had a huge drop from $14.50 to $13.90. It came out of nowhere.

I traded $CALI today since it has squeezed in the past with huge moves. It was halted for 10 minutes and I dip bought out of the halt. Immediately after I bought it tanked 50c and I couldn’t even get out for a small loss. My sell order took several seconds to execute, too.

The first time I try buying out of a halt with real money it ends up being a big loss. I’ve traded those several times while paper trading and they all ended up working. It’s just ridiculous that I end up picking the one that tanks when I decide to buy. I have incredibly bad luck.

I checked the time and sales data and in 5 seconds it dropped 40c+. There was no time to exit. It basically tapped $4 and everyone bailed. I probably should have recognized that but that’s just insane.

There was only one big order which was 58,000 shares at $3.85 and it kept upticking to $4.00. I’m not sure if there was a big order up there or not.

$CALI 1 minute candles



Disclaimer

I am not a registered financial adviser/broker/anything. Use this information for entertainment/informational purposes only. Any tickers mentioned are not recommendations to buy/sell/or sell short. They are used as examples only.

Watchlist - 04/10/2018

Selecting Stocks and Analysis

$SPY has gapped up and is close to breaking $264.84. I’m planning to scoop up some $AMD shares in another broker today if it gets close to $9.50.


$WATT

Former supernova. This time it has news about receiving FCC certification. Resistance at $23.55.

Float: 19.19M
Short: 33.80%

$FUSZ

Watching for a morning panic now that it is up a lot once again.

$GOPH

Slowly uptrending again. Watching for a morning panic.

Watchlist Review

$WATT had a panic then was choppy. I don’t really like it since the spreads are big.

$FUSZ finally broke out at 11:30 AM and I tried buying at $2.11 but didn’t get filled. It was midday and the volume was weak compared to the morning. Later it really failed and broke through the open and prior close. If it stays red there should be a decent panic tomorrow.

$S had this insane spike and got halted twice on news. I’ve never seen a high float (634.24M) like that get a volatility halt. Out of the second halt I was thinking about buying it but it moved really slowly so I wasn’t sure. My friend shorted too low then shorted again into the next spike. He came out with a really nice win then proceeded to trade it a few more times for smaller wins. Not bad.



Disclaimer

I am not a registered financial adviser/broker/anything. Use this information for entertainment/informational purposes only. Any tickers mentioned are not recommendations to buy/sell/or sell short. They are used as examples only.